In today’s “ Hindustan Times ” I read an interesting article written by G,V.L. Narasimha Rao. It explodes the myth about the so called wave in favour of the Congress in the election for 15th Lok Sabha. Unwittingly, a perception was being created by the media: electronic and print both, that the vote share of Congress had gone up. It did go up, from 26.5 in 2004 to 28.6 in 2009. An upswing of 2.1 per cent. Wow !!! What a phenomenal growth??? It is pertinent to remember that Congress got almost equal, 26.3 per cent vote share, in 1999 also, but it got only 114 seats as compared to 206 this time. So it’s vote share has got nothing to do with it’s seat tally.
Congress improved it’s vote share in – Punjab, Kerala, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand. But it’s vote share went down in – Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Jammu & Kashmir and himachal Pradesh. It gained in 7 states and lost in 6 states. And in 6 states, where it’s vote share went down, the loss was 6 per cent.
Second myth was about the way Congress made itself accepted to the urban middle class. Actually in metropolitan cities, vote share of Congress was 30.7 per cent in 2004, while in 2009 it was 30.4 per cent, loss of .3 per cent. So I don’t think that urban middle class and new generation finds the Congress more attractive. In Mumbai the success of Congress is due to the new sena, Maharashtra Navanirman Sena, and not because of it’s being attractive to the urban middle class or the youngsters.
So everything is not lost for the BJP. Election results of the 15th Lok Sabha is a setback for the BJP and not the rout, as it is being made.
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