MUMBAI – MAHARASHTRA – INDIA OCTOBER 11, 2015 11.45 P.M.
Polls to the 243-seat Assembly would be held on October 12, 16, 28, November 1 and 5. Counting of votes will take place on November 8.
With the announcement of dates of Bihar Assembly Elections 2015, battle lines have been drawn. Armies are out in the battle field. Arms are in place. Swords are being brandished. Quiver is in place and bow is already in position to start the attack. But a big question mark remains. Who will win the battle? There are 4 formations.
1 – NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE [ BJP + LJP + RLSP + HAM ]
2 – MAHAGATHBANDHAN [ JDU + RJD + CONGRESS ]
3 – THIRD FRONT [ SP + NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) + SJD-D (Samajwadi Janata Dal (Democrat) led by former Union Minister Devendra Prasad Yadav + NPP (National Peoples Party) headed by former Lok Sabha Speaker P.A. Sangma ]
4 – LEFT FRONT [CPI (ML-Liberation) + CPI + CPM + RSP + Forward Bloc + SUCI (C) ]
Obviously result is difficult to predict. Media is out with the exclusive(?) opinion polls. But they are so different that one is forced to think that something is terribly wrong. 3 reputed media houses like Zee TV, IndiaBTL & India TV are predicting decisive BJP+ victory. Their survey samples are huge. Their credibility unquestionable and their analysis exhaustive.
Then there is ABP News. They are giving slight edge to BJP+. According to them BJP is ahead of Mahagathbandhan.
While CNN-IBN & India Today are sure that BJP is going to get defeated in the battle decisively. They have no caste wise, region wise analysis. I don’t know they have come to this conclusion?
Same is the case of print media. Indian Express predicts BJP’s rout, while Times of India gives a slight edge to BJP.
It is certain that some media houses are biased in favour of Mahagathbandhan and they want BJP to be defeated. But this is not journalism. They are supposed to give us news. Not their biased views. The word “PRESSTITUDE”, which is widely used today, seems to be true for a section of biased media.
Please go to the important predictions of the media houses and decide yourself.
ZEE TV – JANTA KA MOOD OPINION POLL :
The survey was conducted by JantaKaMood for Zee Media Ltd from October 5-8, 2015.
The pre poll survey indicates that 54 percent electorate is expected to vote for the NDA, while 40.2 percent may vote for grand alliance and 5.8 percent will opt for the Others.
The NDA comprises of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Hindustani Awam Morcha(HAM), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) & Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP).
The grand alliance has been formed by Janata Dal-United, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress.
According to the survey, if the polls are conducted today, the NDA will be leading in 162 seats, the grand alliance in 51 and the remaining 30 seats will witness a very close fight.
35.1 percent of the Muslim population is expected to vote for the NDA, while 57.9 percent of the minority community will go with the grand alliance-led by Nitish Kumar.
The poll survey further predicts that Hindus will vote in majority for the BJP-led alliance. 57.8 percent Hindus are predicted to vote for the NDA, 36.6 percent will opt for the JDU+RJD+ and Others will get 5.6 percent of their votes.
The survey also predicts a close contest for the Yadav votes. BJP-led alliance is expected to win over 43.3 percent Yadav votes, grand alliance 51.9 percent and Others 4.8 percent.
It seems the female community is inclined towards the Modi-led NDA. Around 57.5 percent female electorates are to vote for the NDA, 36.0 percent will go for grand alliance and 6.5 percent will opt for Others.
According to the survey, vote share in major caste groups in Bihar will be as follows:
Forward votes: NDA is expected to win over 65 percent of the voters, 30 percent will stick to grand alliance and the remaining 5 percent will vote for Others.
Also Read – Grand Alliance set to win Bihar election: Survey
Dalit + MahaDalit votes: 57 percent want to elect the NDA, 36 percent want JDU+RJD+ and 7 percent would go for Others
OBC votes: The BJP-led NDA projected to win over 55 percent, Nitish-led alliance 40 percent and Others to get 5 percent.
50 percent Yadav (OBC) voters want to opt for grand alliance, 45 percent would like to vote for NDA and 5 percent will go for the Others.
52 percent of Kurmi (OBC) want NDA government in Bihar, 40 percent want grand alliance and 7 percent want Others.
While the BJP-led alliance is expected to win over 55 percent of EBC voters, ‘Mahagathbandhan’ will get 40 percent and Others 5 percent.
The Khushwaha (EBC) community is tilted towards the NDA and is 57 percent are likely to vote for it. 40 percent want to side with Nitish-Lalu and rest 3 percent are tilted towards Others.
Furthermore, the electorate from Koeri (EBC) want NDA. 58 percent want BJP-led alliance, 37 percent want JDU+RJD+ and 5 percent would vote for Others.
NDA is projected to win over Teli (EBC) with 70 percent of the votes.
There is a close contest for the Adivasi votes, with NDA predicted to get 47 percent, ‘Mahagathbandhan’ 48 percent and Other s 5 percent.
The pre poll survey also said that the NDA, which registered an emphatic win in the 2014 General Elections, is expected to get 54.2 percent of votes in the 32 Lok Sabha seats. JDU+RJD+ is likely to get 40.1 percent and Others 5.7 percent.
If Lok Sabha elections are conducted today the NDA will win over 39 seats and JDU+RJD+ will fail to open its account, the survey said.
Interestingly, the survey says that aligning with Lalu will backfire Nitish. While, 59.7 percent say that the alliance will hamper Nitish’s prospects in the polls, 30.2 percent think otherwise.
Another interesting factor is BJP is immensely gaining from PM Narendra Modi’s rallies. 62.8 percent think BJP’s star campaigner’s rallies are impacting the voters.
The survey is conducted through telephony. Survey sample is created through random sampling at Assembly constituency level for all the 243 Assembly seats. Approximately 10 lakh people from Bihar were approached in this round of survey. Data processing, analytics and historical data review are used to derive insights from the collected responses.
INDIABTL OPINION POLL :
A few key learnings from the data
- The Upper Castes (Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars and Kayashtas) were strongly behind BJP alliance with over 3/4ths of them preferring to vote for NDA, irrespective of who the candidate was (caste of the candidate did not matter)
- The Dalits are strongly behind NDA while Mahadalits are moderately behind the NDA.
- The Muslims are very strongly behind the Grand Alliance and the 3rd front and MIM has not been able to dent much from this votebank
- The OBCs (almost half of Bihar’s population) are a divided house. However more OBC voters prefer the Grand Alliance than the NDA
- However this skew is largely because of the presence of Yadav, Kurmi and Koeri voters in the OBC fold who have rallied behind the Grand alliance. Leaving them out, a fair majority of other backward communities seem to be behind NDA
We targeted 10,000 voters and successfully got responses from 8782 of them. The voters were distributed across 28 districts of Bihar. The representative sample was close to the actual population distribution of Bihar (except for 1 question on Lalu’s beef remarks which was executed later on a sample of 1200 people from 5 districts). The sample constituted of Muslims 16%, Yadavas 14.5%, Kurmis 5%, Koeris 6%, Dalits 4%, Maha Dalits 10%, Brahmins 5.5%, Baniyas 7%, Rajputs 5%, Bhumiahars 4.5%, Kayasthas 1.5%, and the remaining EBCs at 21%.
Vote share and Seats
Using the above calculation, we arrived out at following vote share
NDA: 144 ( BJP 119 + LJP 16 + RLSP 5 + HAM 4 )
UPA: 85 ( JDU 41 + RJD 40 + INC 4 )
INDIA TV – C VOTER OPINION POLL :
The BJP-led NDA is projected to win 119 seats, three short of the magic mark of 122 in the 243-member Bihar assembly, says the India TV-CVoter pre-poll survey, results of which were telecast on the channel tonight.
The grand alliance forged by RJD, Janata Dal(U) and Congress in Bihar is projected to win 116 seats, three less than NDA’s tally, says the pre-poll survey. Eight seats may go to ‘Others’.
The NDA, comprising BJP, LJP, RLSP and HAM, has been projected to get 43 per cent vote share, compared to 41 pc vote share of Lalu-Nitish-Sonia alliance, says the pre-poll survey.
INDIA TODAY – CICERO OPINION POLL :
India Today had conducted an exhaustive pre poll survey, in collaboration with Cicero. The survey has predicted that the current Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is in fact the most popular leader in the state, followed by Bharatiya Janata Party’s Sushil Modi. The poll also predicted a clear victory for the Janata Dal (United) lead Grand Alliance, which includes Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Rahul Gandhi’s Congress. According to the survey, Grand Alliance got 122 seats, ahead of the BJP lead NDA’s 111 seats. Both the alliances got 41% and 39% voter share respectively.
ABP NEWS – NIELSON OPINION POLL :
ABP News-Nielsen’s latest Opinion Poll has projected a fall in the number of seats of the grand alliance of JD(U)-RJD and Congress in Bihar when compared to what they achieved in July.
The grand coalition was projected to win 129 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, according to our Survey conducted two months ago. However, this time around, the Opinion Poll has predicted that the Nitish Kumar-led association is set to lose seven seats thereby dropping down to 122.
According to the Opinion Poll, the BJP-led combine including LJP, RLSP and HAM is likely to win six seats more improving their tally to 118 as compared to the last conducted Survey. But NDA running short of four seats demonstrates that it has failed to gather the required magical figure of 122 seats.
The map posted below will give you the mammoth presence of BJP across the nation. Momentum is not lost in the previous assembly polls of MAHARASHTRA, HARYANA, JAMMU & KASHMIR & JHARKHAND. DELHI being the sole exception.
So I hope that Zee TV’s 2/3rd majority prediction for BJP+ will be manifested in results. A new churning has begun in Bihar. Youth and female voters are heralding the new change in the hugely patriarchal and caste-ridden Bihar. Victorious march of BJP will continue in the Bihar and will change the JUNGLE-RAJ of beef eating socialists.
[ Poll predictions and all the other data has been extensively quoted from the website of the various Media channels. I express gratitude. ]
MUMBAI – MAHARASHTRA – INDIA
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