Bihar Election 2015 & Biased Media


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MUMBAI – MAHARASHTRA – INDIA           OCTOBER 11, 2015           11.45 P.M.

 

Bihar Assembly Election - 2015

Bihar Assembly Election – 2015

 

Polls to the 243-seat Assembly would be held on October 12, 16, 28, November 1 and 5. Counting of votes will take place on November 8.

 

With the announcement of dates of Bihar Assembly Elections 2015, battle lines have been drawn. Armies are out in the battle field. Arms are in place. Swords are being brandished. Quiver is in place and bow is already in position to start the attack. But a big question mark remains. Who will win the battle? There are 4 formations.

1 – NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE  [ BJP + LJP + RLSP + HAM ]

2 – MAHAGATHBANDHAN [ JDU + RJD + CONGRESS ]

3 – THIRD FRONT [ SP + NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) +  SJD-D (Samajwadi Janata Dal (Democrat) led by former Union Minister Devendra Prasad Yadav + NPP (National Peoples Party) headed by former Lok Sabha Speaker P.A. Sangma ]

4 – LEFT FRONT [CPI (ML-Liberation) + CPI + CPM + RSP + Forward Bloc + SUCI (C) ]

Obviously result is difficult to predict. Media is out with the exclusive(?) opinion polls. But they are so different that one is forced to think that something is terribly wrong. 3 reputed media houses like Zee TV, IndiaBTL & India TV are predicting decisive BJP+ victory. Their survey samples are huge. Their credibility unquestionable and their analysis exhaustive.

Then there is ABP News. They are giving slight edge to BJP+.  According to them BJP is ahead of Mahagathbandhan.

While CNN-IBN & India Today are sure that BJP is going to get defeated in the battle decisively. They have no caste wise, region wise analysis. I don’t know they have come to this conclusion?

Same is the case of print media. Indian Express predicts BJP’s rout, while Times of India gives a slight edge to BJP.

It is certain that some media houses are biased in favour of Mahagathbandhan and they want BJP to be defeated. But this is not journalism. They are supposed to give us news. Not their biased views. The word “PRESSTITUDE”, which is widely used today, seems to be true for a section of biased media.

Please go to the important predictions of the media houses and decide yourself.

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Zee TV Opinion Poll

Zee TV Opinion Poll

ZEE TV – JANTA KA MOOD OPINION POLL :

The survey was conducted by JantaKaMood for Zee Media Ltd from October 5-8, 2015.

The pre poll survey indicates that 54 percent electorate is expected to vote for the NDA, while 40.2 percent may vote for grand alliance and 5.8 percent will opt for the Others.

The NDA comprises of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Hindustani Awam Morcha(HAM), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) & Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP).

The grand alliance has been formed by Janata Dal-United, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress.

According to the survey, if the polls are conducted today, the NDA will be leading in 162 seats, the grand alliance in 51 and the remaining 30 seats will witness a very close fight.

35.1 percent of the Muslim population is expected to vote for the NDA, while 57.9 percent of the minority community will go with the grand alliance-led by Nitish Kumar.

The poll survey further predicts that Hindus will vote in majority for the BJP-led alliance. 57.8 percent Hindus are predicted to vote for the NDA, 36.6 percent will opt for the JDU+RJD+ and Others will get 5.6 percent of their votes.

The survey also predicts a close contest for the Yadav votes. BJP-led alliance is expected to win over 43.3 percent Yadav votes, grand alliance 51.9 percent and Others 4.8 percent.

It seems the female community is inclined towards the Modi-led NDA. Around 57.5 percent female electorates are to vote for the NDA, 36.0 percent will go for grand alliance and 6.5 percent will opt for Others.

According to the survey, vote share in major caste groups in Bihar will be as follows:

Forward votes: NDA is expected to win over 65 percent of the voters, 30 percent will stick to grand alliance and the remaining 5 percent will vote for Others.

Also Read – Grand Alliance set to win Bihar election: Survey

Dalit + MahaDalit votes: 57 percent want to elect the NDA, 36 percent want JDU+RJD+ and 7 percent would go for Others

OBC votes: The BJP-led NDA projected to win over 55 percent, Nitish-led alliance 40 percent and Others to get 5 percent.

50 percent Yadav (OBC) voters want to opt for grand alliance, 45 percent would like to vote for NDA and 5 percent will go for the Others.

52 percent of Kurmi (OBC) want NDA government in Bihar, 40 percent want grand alliance and 7 percent want Others.

While the BJP-led alliance is expected to win over 55 percent of EBC voters, ‘Mahagathbandhan’ will get 40 percent and Others 5 percent.

The Khushwaha (EBC) community is tilted towards the NDA and is 57 percent are likely to vote for it. 40 percent want to side with Nitish-Lalu and rest 3 percent are tilted towards Others.

Furthermore, the electorate from Koeri (EBC) want NDA. 58 percent want BJP-led alliance, 37 percent want JDU+RJD+ and 5 percent would vote for Others.

NDA is projected to win over Teli (EBC) with 70 percent of the votes.

There is a close contest for the Adivasi votes, with NDA predicted to get 47 percent, ‘Mahagathbandhan’ 48 percent and Other s 5 percent.

The pre poll survey also said that the NDA, which registered an emphatic win in the 2014 General Elections, is expected to get 54.2 percent of votes in the 32 Lok Sabha seats. JDU+RJD+ is likely to get 40.1 percent and Others 5.7 percent.

If Lok Sabha elections are conducted today the NDA will win over 39 seats and JDU+RJD+ will fail to open its account, the survey said.

Interestingly, the survey says that aligning with Lalu will backfire Nitish. While, 59.7 percent say that the alliance will  hamper Nitish’s prospects in the polls, 30.2 percent think otherwise.

Another interesting factor is BJP is immensely gaining from PM Narendra Modi’s rallies. 62.8 percent think BJP’s star campaigner’s rallies are impacting the voters.

The survey is conducted through telephony. Survey sample is created through random sampling at Assembly constituency level for all the 243 Assembly seats. Approximately 10 lakh people from Bihar were approached in this round of survey. Data processing, analytics and historical data review are used to derive insights from the collected responses.

 

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INDIABTL OPINION POLL :

A few key learnings from the data

  1. The Upper Castes (Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars and Kayashtas) were strongly behind BJP alliance with over 3/4ths of them preferring to vote for NDA, irrespective of who the candidate was (caste of the candidate did not matter)
  2. The Dalits are strongly behind NDA while Mahadalits are moderately behind the NDA.
  3. The Muslims are very strongly behind the Grand Alliance and the 3rd front and MIM has not been able to dent much from this votebank
  4. The OBCs (almost half of Bihar’s population) are a divided house. However more OBC voters prefer the Grand Alliance than the NDA
  5. However this skew is largely because of the presence of Yadav, Kurmi and Koeri voters in the OBC fold who have rallied behind the Grand alliance. Leaving them out, a fair majority of other backward communities seem to be behind NDA

We targeted 10,000 voters and successfully got responses from 8782 of them. The voters were distributed across 28 districts of Bihar. The representative sample was close to the actual population distribution of Bihar (except for 1 question on Lalu’s beef remarks which was executed later on a sample of 1200 people from 5 districts). The sample constituted of Muslims 16%, Yadavas 14.5%, Kurmis 5%, Koeris 6%, Dalits 4%, Maha Dalits 10%, Brahmins 5.5%, Baniyas 7%, Rajputs 5%, Bhumiahars 4.5%, Kayasthas 1.5%, and the remaining EBCs at 21%.

Vote share and Seats
Using the above calculation, we arrived out at following vote share

Vote share and Seats : : NDA 43.0 % / UPA: 39.8 % / Others 17.2%

Total Seats
NDA: 144 ( BJP 119 + LJP 16 + RLSP 5 + HAM 4 )
UPA: 85 ( JDU 41 + RJD 40 + INC 4 )
Others: 14

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INDIA TV – C VOTER OPINION POLL :

The BJP-led NDA is projected to win 119 seats, three short of the magic mark of 122 in the 243-member Bihar assembly, says the India TV-CVoter pre-poll survey, results of which were telecast on the channel tonight.

The grand alliance forged by RJD, Janata Dal(U) and Congress in Bihar is  projected to win 116 seats, three less than NDA’s tally, says the pre-poll survey. Eight seats may go to ‘Others’.

The NDA, comprising BJP, LJP, RLSP and HAM, has been projected to get 43 per cent vote share, compared to 41 pc vote share of Lalu-Nitish-Sonia alliance, says the pre-poll survey.

 

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CNN - IBN Opinion Poll

CNN – IBN Opinion Poll

INDIA TODAY – CICERO OPINION POLL  :

India Today had conducted an exhaustive pre poll survey, in collaboration with Cicero. The survey has predicted that the current Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is in fact the most popular leader in the state, followed by Bharatiya Janata Party’s Sushil Modi. The poll also predicted a clear victory for the Janata Dal (United) lead Grand Alliance, which includes Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Rahul Gandhi’s Congress. According to the survey, Grand Alliance got 122 seats, ahead of the BJP lead NDA’s 111 seats. Both the alliances got 41% and 39% voter share respectively.

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ABP NEWS – NIELSON OPINION POLL :

ABP News-Nielsen’s latest Opinion Poll has projected a fall in the number of seats of the grand alliance of JD(U)-RJD and Congress in Bihar when compared to what they achieved in July.

 

The grand coalition was projected to win 129 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, according to our Survey conducted two months ago. However, this time around, the Opinion Poll has predicted that the Nitish Kumar-led association is set to lose seven seats thereby dropping down to 122.

 

According to the Opinion Poll, the BJP-led combine including LJP, RLSP and HAM is likely to win six seats more improving their tally to 118 as compared to the last conducted Survey. But NDA running short of four seats demonstrates that it has failed to gather the required magical figure of 122 seats.

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The map posted below will give you the mammoth presence of BJP across the nation. Momentum is not lost in the previous assembly polls of MAHARASHTRA, HARYANA, JAMMU & KASHMIR & JHARKHAND. DELHI being the sole exception.

BJP Rulred States After 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

BJP Rulred States After 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

 

So I hope that Zee TV’s 2/3rd majority prediction for BJP+ will be manifested in results. A new churning has begun in Bihar. Youth and female voters are heralding the new change in the hugely patriarchal and caste-ridden Bihar. Victorious march of BJP will continue in the Bihar and will change the JUNGLE-RAJ of beef eating socialists.

Election - 5

 

[ Poll predictions and all the other data has been extensively quoted from the website of the various Media channels. I express gratitude. ]

 

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Understanding Tamil Nadu – [ 3 ]


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VAITHEESWARAN KOIL – TAMIL NADU – INDIA           DECEMBER 25 , 2012           10.55 P.M.

The political state of Tamil Nadu in India was...

The political state of Tamil Nadu in India was created in 1969 when erstwhile Madras State was renamed (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

After going through my two previous blogs on ” Understanding Tamil Nadu ” , I think that E. V. Ramasamy Naicker ” Periyar ” and his various steps , which he took during his movements , would be properly understood out of Tamil Nadu also . His rationalism , espousal of self-respect , advocacy for women rights and eradication of caste system is epoch – making and has everlasting effect on Tamil people and Tamil Nadu .

English: http://www.periyarkural.com

A Young E. V. Ramasamy Naicker Periyar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

His works among weaker sections of Tamil Nadu , his efforts for the uplifting of lower castes , long subjugated by Brahmins , would be always held in high esteem and would be considered exemplary .

His untiring efforts for the uplifting of women bears indelible marks on the social psyche of Tamil society . Widow marriage , in my opinion , is his most colossal work .

He tirelessly worked for the eradication of child marriage . He espoused inter – caste marriages and opened many educational institutions for the weaker section of society .

It is not for nothing that UNESCO citation in 1970 described Periyar as ” the prophet of the new age  , the Socrates of South East Asia , father of social reform movement and arch enemy of ignorance , superstitions , meaningless customs and base manners .”

His blind opposition of HINDI , HINDU , HINDUSTAN somewhat darkens his other exemplary and far – reaching social works . It is this aspect of his personality and work that brings suspicion and doubt in the minds of large sections of North India . To understand Tamil Nadu better , let us take all the three causes of Periyar , one by one .

HINDI : I closely followed politics since my Allahabad days . I went to Allahabad in 1967 and it was the year when anti – Hindi agitation started in Tamil Nadu . I read many wicked stories published in the Hindi newspapers and magazines of those days . One story said that if you are lost and approach a Tamil speaking person for asking the right route , you will be unable to get an answer if you ask in Hindi . Even if  a Tamil speaking person knows Hindi , he won’t answer and will go away saying ” HINDI ILLAI ” .

I found this story false during my recent forays in the hinterlands of Tamil Nadu . If I approach a person for asking something and even if I ask the question in Hindi , I was not spurned . I get the answer in broken Hindi and that too with smiling face . Sometimes if the person genuinely doesn’t know Hindi , instead of running away , he tries to explain everything in fluent Tamil with lots of hand movements and facial expressions .

If Tamil people think that Tamil is an ancient language and it is older than Hindi , I think that we have to respect the sentiment . Tamil is used in every sphere of Tamil Nadu and you will hardly find signboards in Hindi but in my opinion that is absolutely fine . A particular language should be respected and should be used in the land of its origin . That’s the basis for the formation of linguistic states , which has been agreed by all the political parties .

HINDU : E. V. Ramasamy Naicker ” Periyar ” was atheist for sure . Through his organization Dravid Kazhagam , he started denouncing Hinduism . It started with denunciation of Iyers and Iyengars , Brahmins of Tamil Nadu and culminated in processions , where idols of Ram , Sita and Lakshman were garlanded with slippers .

I can understand his dislike for Brahmins . I am willing to fathom his opposition of Sanskrit language also . I am willing to accept his credo of atheism . We in India have accepted Charvak , the first atheist , as a saint . But you can’t force your belief of not believing in religion on others .

He organized a procession to the Marina beach in 1956 , to burn pictures of Rama , the God . His followers broke idols in the temples , banished Brahmins from the every section of tamil society and organized Ravan Leelas .

But in my recent visits to the state , I found to my surprise that in every temple of Tamil Nadu  a serpentine queue of devotees are visible . It has to be seen to be believed . People come in very large numbers and they pray and worship . Temples are well maintained in Tamil Nadu and I can vouch that Hinduism is thriving in the state much vigorously . Dravid Kazhagam is now a smaller force and Tamil Nadu is as religious as any part of India . In following the tenets of Hinduism they are much ahead and dogmatically strict . On EKADASHI , I found people thronging the temples . I am yet to see same enthusiasm on EKADASHI in North India . Moreover the Tamil Nadu state emblem tells it in a more fitting way .

English: Emblem of the State Government of Tam...

Emblem of the State Government of Tamil Nadu used by the state government for public notices in the press and for publicity purposes. The emblem of India is the image used on the India Wikipedia article. தமிழ்: தமிழ் நாடு அரசின் சின்னம். (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Burning effigies of Bhagawan Ram and other Hindu Gods and the days of celebrating Ravan Leelas are over . Atheism can be accepted , as Charvak was accepted in olden times and he was even called a RISHI .

HINDUSTAN : One of the most disturbing legacy of Periyar was to give a call for Dravid Nadu . He wanted to unite all the four provinces of South India and wanted this entity to be an independent Dravid Nadu .

But majority of his supporters revolted against this demand . In the leadership of C. N. Annadurai , they formed Dravid Munnetra Kazhagam and fought elections . Since 1965 either D.M.K. or A.I.A.D.M.K. rules the state and the demand of so-called Dravid Nadu is thrown somewhere in the trash bins of history .

But demand for separation from India is there in Jammu & Kashmir and all the provinces of North East India . They are more palpable . In fact these provinces are waging armed struggle against the nation . Then why to blame only Tamil Nadu ? There was just a demand and that too by just one organization , Dravid Kazhagam . And today Dravid Kazhagam is not a major force .

A very interesting fact of Tamil Nadu and Dravid politics is that Periyar was himself a Kannada speaking Kannadiga . One of the most successful chief ministers of Tamil Nadu , M. G. Ramachandran was a Kandy , Sri Lanka born and Malayalam speaking actor turned politician . current chief minister Miss Jayalalithaa Jayaram is also a Kannadiga and the irony of the situation is that she is a Brahmin . And she speaks fluent Hindi . Present day superstar Rajanikant , incidentally , is a Maharashtrian .

English: , the Chief Minister of , India.

Jayalalitha , the current Chief Minister of , Tamil Nadu (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

So the fort of atheism and anti Hindi these days is held by Muthuvel Karunanidhi only . But even his family members have changed . M. K. Stalin and Kannimozhi are not that dogmatic .

English: K. Karunanidhi, Chief Minister of Tam...

K. Karunanidhi, the ex Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

So I am stating with all my knowledge accumulated during this visit that Tamil Nadu is changing . Or it has already changed ?

After my return , I would love to share these findings with all the current students of my acting institute Vidur’s Kreating Charakters .

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Understanding Tamil Nadu – [ 1 ]


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VAITHEESWARAN KOIL – TAMIL NADU – INDIA           DECEMBER 23 , 2012           11.55 P.M.

When I landed at Chennai Airport on December 21 , 2012 , it marked my 3rd visit to the Southern metropolis . On December 22 , 2012 , when I drove to Vaitheeswaran Koil in the morning , it marked my 2nd visit to the hinterlands of Tamil Nadu .

The political state of Tamil Nadu in India was...

The political state of Tamil Nadu in India was created in 1969 when erstwhile Madras State was renamed (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

People of my generation always view Tamil Nadu and Tamil people through the prism , which was created in 1967 , when the first Dravidian government was formed in Tamil Nadu under the leadership of C. N. Annadurai .

But if you want to understand Dravid Movement of Tamil Nadu , you have to study the history of Self Respect Movement and Justice Party stablished by E. V. Ramasamy Naicker a.k.a. Periyar . It all started in 1925 , much before 1967 , when Annadurai led D.M.K. [ Dravid Munnetra Kazhagam ] formed the first non – Congress government in Tamil Nadu .

In the history of India , 1925 seems to be a very unique year . In the Tamil Nadu E. V. Ramasamy Naicker ” Periyar ” started his Self Respect Movement and in the same year in Nagpur Dr. Keshav Baliram Hedgewar started R.S.S. [ Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh ] . Periyar’s movement is considered separatist and anti national by many and Dr. Hedgewar’s movement is perceived ultra nationalist by the majority . But it is uncanny that both the movements were started in 1925 .

English: Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Periyar E.V. Ram...

Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Periyar E.V. Ramaswamy and Dr. B. R. Ambedkar on 06-Jan-1940 at Jinnah’s residence in Bombay. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

English: Dr. Hedgewar

Dr. Keshav Baliram Hedgewar , Founder of R.S.S. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It is said that Periyar was peeved by the superiority of Brahmins and their dominance in all the departments and strata of Tamil culture and life . He started this movement called Sel Respect and started espousing the cause of non – Brahmin castes of Tamil Nadu . He started breaking idols in the temple , advocated atheism , despised JANEU , the sacred thread and finally gave a call for the boycott of Brahmin priests in the marriages . His espousal of Self Respect Marriage had far – reaching repercussions and he became quite unpopular in rest of the country . His anti – Brahmin crusades drew wide – spread indignation and his opposition of Hindu deity worship was considered as anti Hindu and finally anti India .

Both the Tamilian parties ; Dravid Munnetra Kazhagam [ DMK ] and All India Anna Dravid Munnetra Kazhagam [ AIADMK ] owe their existence to E. V. Ramasamy Naicker ” Periyar ” and his movement . And thus atheism and anti North India and anti Hindi credo became their life lines . And when DMK came to power in 1967 , Anna Durai accepted many things which were espoused by Periyar . Thus in the rest of India people became suspicious and majority started disliking DMK and it anti Hindi , anti God and anti North India policies .

I was definitely misguided by this prism , which I got while studying in Allahabad from 1967 to 1974 . My recent visits have changed my perception of Tamil Nadu , Tamil people and Tamil politics of Dravidian parties .

I will complete this ” Understanding Tamil Nadu ” series in my next blog and would like to share it with all the current students of my acting academy Vidur’s Kreating Charakters  after my return from Tamil Nadu .

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