Bihar Election 2015 & Biased Media


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MUMBAI – MAHARASHTRA – INDIA           OCTOBER 11, 2015           11.45 P.M.

 

Bihar Assembly Election - 2015

Bihar Assembly Election – 2015

 

Polls to the 243-seat Assembly would be held on October 12, 16, 28, November 1 and 5. Counting of votes will take place on November 8.

 

With the announcement of dates of Bihar Assembly Elections 2015, battle lines have been drawn. Armies are out in the battle field. Arms are in place. Swords are being brandished. Quiver is in place and bow is already in position to start the attack. But a big question mark remains. Who will win the battle? There are 4 formations.

1 – NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE  [ BJP + LJP + RLSP + HAM ]

2 – MAHAGATHBANDHAN [ JDU + RJD + CONGRESS ]

3 – THIRD FRONT [ SP + NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) +  SJD-D (Samajwadi Janata Dal (Democrat) led by former Union Minister Devendra Prasad Yadav + NPP (National Peoples Party) headed by former Lok Sabha Speaker P.A. Sangma ]

4 – LEFT FRONT [CPI (ML-Liberation) + CPI + CPM + RSP + Forward Bloc + SUCI (C) ]

Obviously result is difficult to predict. Media is out with the exclusive(?) opinion polls. But they are so different that one is forced to think that something is terribly wrong. 3 reputed media houses like Zee TV, IndiaBTL & India TV are predicting decisive BJP+ victory. Their survey samples are huge. Their credibility unquestionable and their analysis exhaustive.

Then there is ABP News. They are giving slight edge to BJP+.  According to them BJP is ahead of Mahagathbandhan.

While CNN-IBN & India Today are sure that BJP is going to get defeated in the battle decisively. They have no caste wise, region wise analysis. I don’t know they have come to this conclusion?

Same is the case of print media. Indian Express predicts BJP’s rout, while Times of India gives a slight edge to BJP.

It is certain that some media houses are biased in favour of Mahagathbandhan and they want BJP to be defeated. But this is not journalism. They are supposed to give us news. Not their biased views. The word “PRESSTITUDE”, which is widely used today, seems to be true for a section of biased media.

Please go to the important predictions of the media houses and decide yourself.

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Zee TV Opinion Poll

Zee TV Opinion Poll

ZEE TV – JANTA KA MOOD OPINION POLL :

The survey was conducted by JantaKaMood for Zee Media Ltd from October 5-8, 2015.

The pre poll survey indicates that 54 percent electorate is expected to vote for the NDA, while 40.2 percent may vote for grand alliance and 5.8 percent will opt for the Others.

The NDA comprises of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Hindustani Awam Morcha(HAM), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) & Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP).

The grand alliance has been formed by Janata Dal-United, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress.

According to the survey, if the polls are conducted today, the NDA will be leading in 162 seats, the grand alliance in 51 and the remaining 30 seats will witness a very close fight.

35.1 percent of the Muslim population is expected to vote for the NDA, while 57.9 percent of the minority community will go with the grand alliance-led by Nitish Kumar.

The poll survey further predicts that Hindus will vote in majority for the BJP-led alliance. 57.8 percent Hindus are predicted to vote for the NDA, 36.6 percent will opt for the JDU+RJD+ and Others will get 5.6 percent of their votes.

The survey also predicts a close contest for the Yadav votes. BJP-led alliance is expected to win over 43.3 percent Yadav votes, grand alliance 51.9 percent and Others 4.8 percent.

It seems the female community is inclined towards the Modi-led NDA. Around 57.5 percent female electorates are to vote for the NDA, 36.0 percent will go for grand alliance and 6.5 percent will opt for Others.

According to the survey, vote share in major caste groups in Bihar will be as follows:

Forward votes: NDA is expected to win over 65 percent of the voters, 30 percent will stick to grand alliance and the remaining 5 percent will vote for Others.

Also Read – Grand Alliance set to win Bihar election: Survey

Dalit + MahaDalit votes: 57 percent want to elect the NDA, 36 percent want JDU+RJD+ and 7 percent would go for Others

OBC votes: The BJP-led NDA projected to win over 55 percent, Nitish-led alliance 40 percent and Others to get 5 percent.

50 percent Yadav (OBC) voters want to opt for grand alliance, 45 percent would like to vote for NDA and 5 percent will go for the Others.

52 percent of Kurmi (OBC) want NDA government in Bihar, 40 percent want grand alliance and 7 percent want Others.

While the BJP-led alliance is expected to win over 55 percent of EBC voters, ‘Mahagathbandhan’ will get 40 percent and Others 5 percent.

The Khushwaha (EBC) community is tilted towards the NDA and is 57 percent are likely to vote for it. 40 percent want to side with Nitish-Lalu and rest 3 percent are tilted towards Others.

Furthermore, the electorate from Koeri (EBC) want NDA. 58 percent want BJP-led alliance, 37 percent want JDU+RJD+ and 5 percent would vote for Others.

NDA is projected to win over Teli (EBC) with 70 percent of the votes.

There is a close contest for the Adivasi votes, with NDA predicted to get 47 percent, ‘Mahagathbandhan’ 48 percent and Other s 5 percent.

The pre poll survey also said that the NDA, which registered an emphatic win in the 2014 General Elections, is expected to get 54.2 percent of votes in the 32 Lok Sabha seats. JDU+RJD+ is likely to get 40.1 percent and Others 5.7 percent.

If Lok Sabha elections are conducted today the NDA will win over 39 seats and JDU+RJD+ will fail to open its account, the survey said.

Interestingly, the survey says that aligning with Lalu will backfire Nitish. While, 59.7 percent say that the alliance will  hamper Nitish’s prospects in the polls, 30.2 percent think otherwise.

Another interesting factor is BJP is immensely gaining from PM Narendra Modi’s rallies. 62.8 percent think BJP’s star campaigner’s rallies are impacting the voters.

The survey is conducted through telephony. Survey sample is created through random sampling at Assembly constituency level for all the 243 Assembly seats. Approximately 10 lakh people from Bihar were approached in this round of survey. Data processing, analytics and historical data review are used to derive insights from the collected responses.

 

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INDIABTL OPINION POLL :

A few key learnings from the data

  1. The Upper Castes (Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars and Kayashtas) were strongly behind BJP alliance with over 3/4ths of them preferring to vote for NDA, irrespective of who the candidate was (caste of the candidate did not matter)
  2. The Dalits are strongly behind NDA while Mahadalits are moderately behind the NDA.
  3. The Muslims are very strongly behind the Grand Alliance and the 3rd front and MIM has not been able to dent much from this votebank
  4. The OBCs (almost half of Bihar’s population) are a divided house. However more OBC voters prefer the Grand Alliance than the NDA
  5. However this skew is largely because of the presence of Yadav, Kurmi and Koeri voters in the OBC fold who have rallied behind the Grand alliance. Leaving them out, a fair majority of other backward communities seem to be behind NDA

We targeted 10,000 voters and successfully got responses from 8782 of them. The voters were distributed across 28 districts of Bihar. The representative sample was close to the actual population distribution of Bihar (except for 1 question on Lalu’s beef remarks which was executed later on a sample of 1200 people from 5 districts). The sample constituted of Muslims 16%, Yadavas 14.5%, Kurmis 5%, Koeris 6%, Dalits 4%, Maha Dalits 10%, Brahmins 5.5%, Baniyas 7%, Rajputs 5%, Bhumiahars 4.5%, Kayasthas 1.5%, and the remaining EBCs at 21%.

Vote share and Seats
Using the above calculation, we arrived out at following vote share

Vote share and Seats : : NDA 43.0 % / UPA: 39.8 % / Others 17.2%

Total Seats
NDA: 144 ( BJP 119 + LJP 16 + RLSP 5 + HAM 4 )
UPA: 85 ( JDU 41 + RJD 40 + INC 4 )
Others: 14

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INDIA TV – C VOTER OPINION POLL :

The BJP-led NDA is projected to win 119 seats, three short of the magic mark of 122 in the 243-member Bihar assembly, says the India TV-CVoter pre-poll survey, results of which were telecast on the channel tonight.

The grand alliance forged by RJD, Janata Dal(U) and Congress in Bihar is  projected to win 116 seats, three less than NDA’s tally, says the pre-poll survey. Eight seats may go to ‘Others’.

The NDA, comprising BJP, LJP, RLSP and HAM, has been projected to get 43 per cent vote share, compared to 41 pc vote share of Lalu-Nitish-Sonia alliance, says the pre-poll survey.

 

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CNN - IBN Opinion Poll

CNN – IBN Opinion Poll

INDIA TODAY – CICERO OPINION POLL  :

India Today had conducted an exhaustive pre poll survey, in collaboration with Cicero. The survey has predicted that the current Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is in fact the most popular leader in the state, followed by Bharatiya Janata Party’s Sushil Modi. The poll also predicted a clear victory for the Janata Dal (United) lead Grand Alliance, which includes Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Rahul Gandhi’s Congress. According to the survey, Grand Alliance got 122 seats, ahead of the BJP lead NDA’s 111 seats. Both the alliances got 41% and 39% voter share respectively.

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ABP NEWS – NIELSON OPINION POLL :

ABP News-Nielsen’s latest Opinion Poll has projected a fall in the number of seats of the grand alliance of JD(U)-RJD and Congress in Bihar when compared to what they achieved in July.

 

The grand coalition was projected to win 129 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, according to our Survey conducted two months ago. However, this time around, the Opinion Poll has predicted that the Nitish Kumar-led association is set to lose seven seats thereby dropping down to 122.

 

According to the Opinion Poll, the BJP-led combine including LJP, RLSP and HAM is likely to win six seats more improving their tally to 118 as compared to the last conducted Survey. But NDA running short of four seats demonstrates that it has failed to gather the required magical figure of 122 seats.

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The map posted below will give you the mammoth presence of BJP across the nation. Momentum is not lost in the previous assembly polls of MAHARASHTRA, HARYANA, JAMMU & KASHMIR & JHARKHAND. DELHI being the sole exception.

BJP Rulred States After 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

BJP Rulred States After 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

 

So I hope that Zee TV’s 2/3rd majority prediction for BJP+ will be manifested in results. A new churning has begun in Bihar. Youth and female voters are heralding the new change in the hugely patriarchal and caste-ridden Bihar. Victorious march of BJP will continue in the Bihar and will change the JUNGLE-RAJ of beef eating socialists.

Election - 5

 

[ Poll predictions and all the other data has been extensively quoted from the website of the various Media channels. I express gratitude. ]

 

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One Year of Modi & A Blind Arun Shourie


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MUMBAI – MAHARASHTRA – INDIA           MAY 12, 2015           06.20,  P.M.

 

Narendra Modi government will be completing one year in office on May 25th, 2015. To commemorate the occasion, there are many articles and several unsolicited advises for Narendra Modi in various newspapers and TV channels. All the critics assume as if he is not Narendra Modi, the hugely successful Chief Minister of Gujarat for 12 long years, but a school kid and knows nothing about politics. Therefore he should be advised about governance.

Every government of the day is prone to criticism and analysis. People should criticize, scrutinize and put forward suggestions for good governance. Some friends and well-wishers of Narendra Modi are rightly doing so.

There are some enemies also. These secular, Left-Liberal, Nehruvian socialists are his political opponents and a group of journalists, known in Social Media as PRESSTITUTES. Congress leaders and leaders of other parties are hellbent that this government must fail and a discredited Narendra Modi should be banished from New Delhi and live there after in perpetual disgrace. PRESSTITUTES are helping them in this endeavour.

And there are FRENEMIES [ Friends in his presence + Enemies in his absence ] also. In the garb of forwarding constructive critique, they are dishing out biased, highly opinionated and one-sided, false stories. These disgruntled lot want to defame Narendra Modi and his government at any cost because they are not entertained by him and are not getting anything from this government. Arun Shourie, for sure, is one of them. He is the kingpin of Narendra Modi’s FRENEMIES.

Shourie can’t see national and international press writings about Modi government. He seems to be unaware of the views of the world leaders about PM Modi and the international accolades he is getting. Though,he praises Modi government’s foreign policy, but still finds faults with it.

Arun Shourie is highly critical about the economic policy orientation of Modi government. He forgets MAKE IN INDIA campaign. He is oblivious of JAN DHAN YOJANA / JAN SURAKSHA YOJANA . MAKE IN INDIA is for the industry and gigantic enterprises. JAN DHAN / JAN SURAKSHA schemes are for the poor populace. Thus Modi government is taking care of all the sections and segments of Indian society.

Shourie doesn’t care about the statistics provided by government or independent sources, but has gumption to come on national television and hurl unsubstantiated charges and proffer it as critique. He certainly has a hidden agenda.

Last week I wrote a blog denouncing his dishonesty. Here is the link

Arun Shourie , A Dishonest Intellectual

 

It gives point by point answer to his 10 points charge sheet against PM Modi. In the present blog I am giving data of PM Modi’s achievements in the field of foreign and economic affairs. All the facts are taken from the twitter-handles of eminent twitter activists. Never-happened-before-achievements are here for everyone to see.

It is not for nothing that BJP [ Bharatiya Janata Party ] is now the largest, biggest party of the world. BJP now has 10 crore+ members. Though Arun Shourie is critical of Amit Shah also.

Today as I am about to post the blog, I just noticed a new tweet about 1 Year of Narendra Modi and 60 Years of Congress Scams. I am posting it here :

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1Year Of & 60Years of Congress See the Difference……….

290 retweets 102 favorites

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General / Miscellaneous Achievements

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BJP government’s first year is one of the best years of Indian economic reform: US Expert – The Economic Times

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BJP now has 10cr+ (100 million) members in its fold. A milestone for any democratic movement in the world. Jai Hind

976 retweets 1,117 favorites

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: Parliament Productivity at Historic High under PM Govt

32 retweets 8 favorites

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news of the week that was missed by the mainstream media.

38 retweets 8 favorites

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There are almost 1700 laws that need to be done away with. I have already decided to remove 700 of them: PM

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New work culture for Ministers in this NDA government!

11 retweets 3 favorites

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New normal for Babus in NaMo Govt.

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Indian PM on in 2012 = The Underachiever. Indian PM on in 2015 = The Reformer in Chief. 🙂

193 retweets 81 favorites

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Economic Reforms

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: Estimated revenue gain due to e-Auction of Coal Blocks is 7 Lakh Crore!

4 retweets 1 favorite

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: Spectrum auction bids cross Rs 1 lakh crore mark | Read more at:

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Spectrum: Comparing the benefit of of Modi govt with the loot of Sonia’s UPA.

51 retweets 21 favorites

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> FYI is doing this but media is still in medieval world & talks of only communal issues

15 retweets 2 favorites

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Modi’s Model village has a new bank, bus stop, school, solar lights, bio toilets, pucca houses & 20,000l water tank

324 retweets 177 favorites

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More about the MUDRA Bank.

628 retweets 649 favorites

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Moody’s Upgrades India’s Outlook to Positive.

4 retweets 3 favorites

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Modi Govt’s Good Governance & Reforms applauded across the world!!

5 retweets 5 favorites

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Make in India gains further momentum. $2 billion cumulative outsourcing planned by from India by 2020.

506 retweets 286 favorites

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news from manufacturing industry. 15 of 22 industry groups posted positive growth in Feb 2015.

53 retweets 26 favorites

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Under PM Govt: India zooms past China to become the world’s fastest-growing Economy.

30 retweets 17 favorites

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Relief to farmers…

15 retweets 15 favorites

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Manufacturing & Industrial Production at 9 months high under Modi Govt.

27 retweets 13 favorites

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For the 1st time in 2 decades, govt registers double digit growth in the electricity generation.

41 retweets 17 favorites

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Powered by Modi Govts GoodGovn,PowerGeneration crosses 1trillion units & Manufacturing,IndustrialProd at 9 mths high.

131 retweets 132 favorites

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Historic Progress in the Power Sector.

618 retweets 752 favorites

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Indian Economy takes giant leaps under PM

20 retweets 14 favorites

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India is on the world map as country of most impressive economic growth

7 retweets 6 favorites

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World is looking at India with new hope thanks to our PM’s leadership

29 retweets 11 favorites

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India overtakes US as third biggest steel producer

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India’s trade deficit falls to a 17 month low.

78 retweets 35 favorites

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The entire world is looking at India.

52 retweets 35 favorites

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India’s Forex Reserves reaches a record high of $343.2 Billion.

52 retweets 25 favorites

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for Indian Women! Massive drive for women in forces.

12 retweets 8 favorites

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– Mission for smart cities takes shape. RT

34 retweets 15 favorites

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& they ask where is ?

54 retweets 22 favorites

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: Huge Surge in FDI inflows under PM Modi Govt For more infographics visit

20 retweets 12 favorites

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Acche din

88 retweets 50 favorites

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New record set: highest ever has been recorded for 11 sectors in a single FY (FY 2014-15)

98 retweets 85 favorites

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Foreign Affairs

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22 retweets 15 favorites

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After Ukraine, Iraq & Libya, in Yemen is the 4th evacuation done under the new Indian Govt.

135 retweets 60 favorites

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Top billing. PM ‘s visit gets wide coverage in French papers.

799 retweets 426 favorites

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Saturation coverage in Toronto papers of

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A leader writes about another. Prez writes about PM in .

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The day after Coverage in Canadian print media today, following PM ‘s departure from Vancouver yesterday

502 retweets 352 favorites

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Difference that a willing & ABLE govt can do. No waiting & contemplation period.JUST ACTION

36 retweets 8 favorites

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A whopping 90% of respondents said that handled superbly!

91 retweets 51 favorites

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India has demonstrated its global leadership in recent weeks, 1st in Yemen & now in Nepal. We’re grateful: US Envoy

413 retweets 234 favorites

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आज से शुरू होगी E-VISA सर्वि‍स, दुनि‍या के 40% देशों को भारत ने कि‍या शामि‍ल

28 retweets 16 favorites

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Here is how India’s energy diplomacy has recieved a huge boost with every International visit of PM .

46 retweets 22 favorites

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The facts till now.

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I am not a famous journalist like Arun Shourie. I am not a world-famous intellectual. I am an ordinary citizen of India. If I can see all the above mentioned trends, why can’t Arun Shourie? If I can read all the statistics, why can’t Arun Shourie? It means he has an agenda. He is aggrieved that he is not getting any importance from Modi government. So he is venting out his frustration. It is the case of sour grapes.

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On behalf of all the students & staff of VIDUR Acting Institute , VIDUR Editing Studio , VIDUR Club and VIDUR Merchandise, I would love to see a thoroughly exposed Arun Shourie. 

May he face the ignominy he so rightly deserves.

 

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Understanding Tamil Nadu – [ 4 ]


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CHENNAI – TAMIL NADU – INDIA           DECEMBER 26 , 2012           11.55 P.M.

 

The political state of Tamil Nadu in India was...

The political state of Tamil Nadu in India was created in 1969 when erstwhile Madras State was renamed (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

After four days stay , I left Vaitheeswaran Koil in the afternoon and reached Chennai in the night . Sitting in the room of my hotel Golden Tower , I am writing the 4th installment of ” Understanding Tamil Nadu ” .

In my last 3 blogs I have tried to explain some of the misconceptions about Tamil Nadu , its leaders and general public . For the large sections of North Indian people the image of Tamil Nadu of 1965 is hard to forget . I think I have explained everything in detail about Tamil Nadu of 1965 .

Conjeevaram Natarajan Annadurai , Muthuvel Karunanidhi , Marudhur Gopal Ramachandran and Jayalalithaa Jayaram have dominated the Tamil Nadu scene since 1967 . They all jointly left Dravid Kazhagam led by Erode Venkata Ramasamy Naicker ” Periyar ” a.k.a. E. V. Ramasamy Naicker ” Periyar ” and formed Dravid Munnetra Kazhagam a.k.a. D.M.K. in 1949 .

 

English: M. G. Ramachandran, K. A. Mathialagan...

M. G. Ramachandran, K. A. Mathialagan, C. N. Annadurai, C. Rajagopalachari, M. Karunanidhi at a private function in Jan 1968 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

Conjeevaram Natarajan Annadurai a.k.a. C. N. Annadurai led D.M.K. to victory in 1967 elections and became the first non – Congress leader to form a majority government in any Indian state . He left Dravid Kazhagam and formed a new party because he was not willing to be part of anti national forces . He was against vivisection of India and was in favour of fighting elections under Indian Constitution . Atheism and anti – Hindi sentiments were the only two things which he accepted and borrowed from Dravid Kazhagam . He was instrumental in dropping the demand of independent Dravid Nadu of Periyar and berrying it forever in the pious land of Tamil Nadu .

C. N. Annadurai's House in Kanchipuram

C. N. Annadurai’s House in Kanchipuram

Anna Durai Memorial at Marina Beach

Anna Durai Memorial at Marina Beach

After his death in 1969 the post of chief minister went to Muthuvel Karunanidhi a.k.a. M. Karunanidhi . He followed almost same principles of C. N. Annadurai and atheism and anti – Hindi rhetoric still continues to be his credo .

But he has participated in the N.D.A. as well as U.P.A. governments of centre and his earlier bellicose attitude does not exist any more . A five time chief minister of Tamil Nadu is not the same M. Karunanidhi of yore . He is a changed man .

English: K. Karunanidhi, Chief Minister of Tam...

M. Karunanidhi, ex Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

In 1972 Marudhur Gopala Ramachandran a.k.a. M. G. Ramachandran split the D.M.K. and formed Anna D.M.K. It was later on rechristened as All India Anna Dravid Munnetra Kazhagam a.k.a. A.I.A.D.M.K. He is the only chief minister of Tamil Nadu , who holds the record of winning three consecutive terms as the chief minister . Though he followed atheism initially , but he was a practising Hindu and a follower of Bhagawan Muruga . During his regime , animosity towards North India disappeared and he followed a policy of no confrontation towards centre .

MGR Memorial

MGR Memorial

His successor Jayalalitha jayaram is a Hindu Brahmin and though she has not said anything openly but she is not an atheist . She is the only leader of prominence from Tamil Nadu , who can speak fluent Hindi . In my personal opinion she is only leader from Tamil Nadu who is capable of becoming the Prime Minister of India . I must say that she could , rather she should become the Prime Ministar of this nation . That day will be a red-letter day in our history and it will be a final blow to some of the misguided policies of E. V. Ramasamy Naicker ” Periyar ” .

Tamil Nadu legislative assembly election, 2011

Jayalalithaa , Incumbent Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Thus in Tamil Nadu of today a different picture emerges these days . Gone are the days of unnecessary bellicose attitude of Tamil politicians . Credit for this goes to Bharat Ratna M. G. Ramachandran . Again a personal opinion , but I think he would have been an excellent Prime Minister of India . But alas he died young . 70 is no age to go .

I will again say that Tamil Nadu is changing fast . Or it has already changed ?

I am waiting to narrate these findings to all the current students of  my acting school Vidur’s Kreating Charakters .

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