Bihar Election 2015 & Biased Media


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MUMBAI – MAHARASHTRA – INDIA           OCTOBER 11, 2015           11.45 P.M.

 

Bihar Assembly Election - 2015

Bihar Assembly Election – 2015

 

Polls to the 243-seat Assembly would be held on October 12, 16, 28, November 1 and 5. Counting of votes will take place on November 8.

 

With the announcement of dates of Bihar Assembly Elections 2015, battle lines have been drawn. Armies are out in the battle field. Arms are in place. Swords are being brandished. Quiver is in place and bow is already in position to start the attack. But a big question mark remains. Who will win the battle? There are 4 formations.

1 – NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE  [ BJP + LJP + RLSP + HAM ]

2 – MAHAGATHBANDHAN [ JDU + RJD + CONGRESS ]

3 – THIRD FRONT [ SP + NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) +  SJD-D (Samajwadi Janata Dal (Democrat) led by former Union Minister Devendra Prasad Yadav + NPP (National Peoples Party) headed by former Lok Sabha Speaker P.A. Sangma ]

4 – LEFT FRONT [CPI (ML-Liberation) + CPI + CPM + RSP + Forward Bloc + SUCI (C) ]

Obviously result is difficult to predict. Media is out with the exclusive(?) opinion polls. But they are so different that one is forced to think that something is terribly wrong. 3 reputed media houses like Zee TV, IndiaBTL & India TV are predicting decisive BJP+ victory. Their survey samples are huge. Their credibility unquestionable and their analysis exhaustive.

Then there is ABP News. They are giving slight edge to BJP+.  According to them BJP is ahead of Mahagathbandhan.

While CNN-IBN & India Today are sure that BJP is going to get defeated in the battle decisively. They have no caste wise, region wise analysis. I don’t know they have come to this conclusion?

Same is the case of print media. Indian Express predicts BJP’s rout, while Times of India gives a slight edge to BJP.

It is certain that some media houses are biased in favour of Mahagathbandhan and they want BJP to be defeated. But this is not journalism. They are supposed to give us news. Not their biased views. The word “PRESSTITUDE”, which is widely used today, seems to be true for a section of biased media.

Please go to the important predictions of the media houses and decide yourself.

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Zee TV Opinion Poll

Zee TV Opinion Poll

ZEE TV – JANTA KA MOOD OPINION POLL :

The survey was conducted by JantaKaMood for Zee Media Ltd from October 5-8, 2015.

The pre poll survey indicates that 54 percent electorate is expected to vote for the NDA, while 40.2 percent may vote for grand alliance and 5.8 percent will opt for the Others.

The NDA comprises of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Hindustani Awam Morcha(HAM), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) & Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP).

The grand alliance has been formed by Janata Dal-United, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress.

According to the survey, if the polls are conducted today, the NDA will be leading in 162 seats, the grand alliance in 51 and the remaining 30 seats will witness a very close fight.

35.1 percent of the Muslim population is expected to vote for the NDA, while 57.9 percent of the minority community will go with the grand alliance-led by Nitish Kumar.

The poll survey further predicts that Hindus will vote in majority for the BJP-led alliance. 57.8 percent Hindus are predicted to vote for the NDA, 36.6 percent will opt for the JDU+RJD+ and Others will get 5.6 percent of their votes.

The survey also predicts a close contest for the Yadav votes. BJP-led alliance is expected to win over 43.3 percent Yadav votes, grand alliance 51.9 percent and Others 4.8 percent.

It seems the female community is inclined towards the Modi-led NDA. Around 57.5 percent female electorates are to vote for the NDA, 36.0 percent will go for grand alliance and 6.5 percent will opt for Others.

According to the survey, vote share in major caste groups in Bihar will be as follows:

Forward votes: NDA is expected to win over 65 percent of the voters, 30 percent will stick to grand alliance and the remaining 5 percent will vote for Others.

Also Read – Grand Alliance set to win Bihar election: Survey

Dalit + MahaDalit votes: 57 percent want to elect the NDA, 36 percent want JDU+RJD+ and 7 percent would go for Others

OBC votes: The BJP-led NDA projected to win over 55 percent, Nitish-led alliance 40 percent and Others to get 5 percent.

50 percent Yadav (OBC) voters want to opt for grand alliance, 45 percent would like to vote for NDA and 5 percent will go for the Others.

52 percent of Kurmi (OBC) want NDA government in Bihar, 40 percent want grand alliance and 7 percent want Others.

While the BJP-led alliance is expected to win over 55 percent of EBC voters, ‘Mahagathbandhan’ will get 40 percent and Others 5 percent.

The Khushwaha (EBC) community is tilted towards the NDA and is 57 percent are likely to vote for it. 40 percent want to side with Nitish-Lalu and rest 3 percent are tilted towards Others.

Furthermore, the electorate from Koeri (EBC) want NDA. 58 percent want BJP-led alliance, 37 percent want JDU+RJD+ and 5 percent would vote for Others.

NDA is projected to win over Teli (EBC) with 70 percent of the votes.

There is a close contest for the Adivasi votes, with NDA predicted to get 47 percent, ‘Mahagathbandhan’ 48 percent and Other s 5 percent.

The pre poll survey also said that the NDA, which registered an emphatic win in the 2014 General Elections, is expected to get 54.2 percent of votes in the 32 Lok Sabha seats. JDU+RJD+ is likely to get 40.1 percent and Others 5.7 percent.

If Lok Sabha elections are conducted today the NDA will win over 39 seats and JDU+RJD+ will fail to open its account, the survey said.

Interestingly, the survey says that aligning with Lalu will backfire Nitish. While, 59.7 percent say that the alliance will  hamper Nitish’s prospects in the polls, 30.2 percent think otherwise.

Another interesting factor is BJP is immensely gaining from PM Narendra Modi’s rallies. 62.8 percent think BJP’s star campaigner’s rallies are impacting the voters.

The survey is conducted through telephony. Survey sample is created through random sampling at Assembly constituency level for all the 243 Assembly seats. Approximately 10 lakh people from Bihar were approached in this round of survey. Data processing, analytics and historical data review are used to derive insights from the collected responses.

 

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INDIABTL OPINION POLL :

A few key learnings from the data

  1. The Upper Castes (Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars and Kayashtas) were strongly behind BJP alliance with over 3/4ths of them preferring to vote for NDA, irrespective of who the candidate was (caste of the candidate did not matter)
  2. The Dalits are strongly behind NDA while Mahadalits are moderately behind the NDA.
  3. The Muslims are very strongly behind the Grand Alliance and the 3rd front and MIM has not been able to dent much from this votebank
  4. The OBCs (almost half of Bihar’s population) are a divided house. However more OBC voters prefer the Grand Alliance than the NDA
  5. However this skew is largely because of the presence of Yadav, Kurmi and Koeri voters in the OBC fold who have rallied behind the Grand alliance. Leaving them out, a fair majority of other backward communities seem to be behind NDA

We targeted 10,000 voters and successfully got responses from 8782 of them. The voters were distributed across 28 districts of Bihar. The representative sample was close to the actual population distribution of Bihar (except for 1 question on Lalu’s beef remarks which was executed later on a sample of 1200 people from 5 districts). The sample constituted of Muslims 16%, Yadavas 14.5%, Kurmis 5%, Koeris 6%, Dalits 4%, Maha Dalits 10%, Brahmins 5.5%, Baniyas 7%, Rajputs 5%, Bhumiahars 4.5%, Kayasthas 1.5%, and the remaining EBCs at 21%.

Vote share and Seats
Using the above calculation, we arrived out at following vote share

Vote share and Seats : : NDA 43.0 % / UPA: 39.8 % / Others 17.2%

Total Seats
NDA: 144 ( BJP 119 + LJP 16 + RLSP 5 + HAM 4 )
UPA: 85 ( JDU 41 + RJD 40 + INC 4 )
Others: 14

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INDIA TV – C VOTER OPINION POLL :

The BJP-led NDA is projected to win 119 seats, three short of the magic mark of 122 in the 243-member Bihar assembly, says the India TV-CVoter pre-poll survey, results of which were telecast on the channel tonight.

The grand alliance forged by RJD, Janata Dal(U) and Congress in Bihar is  projected to win 116 seats, three less than NDA’s tally, says the pre-poll survey. Eight seats may go to ‘Others’.

The NDA, comprising BJP, LJP, RLSP and HAM, has been projected to get 43 per cent vote share, compared to 41 pc vote share of Lalu-Nitish-Sonia alliance, says the pre-poll survey.

 

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CNN - IBN Opinion Poll

CNN – IBN Opinion Poll

INDIA TODAY – CICERO OPINION POLL  :

India Today had conducted an exhaustive pre poll survey, in collaboration with Cicero. The survey has predicted that the current Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is in fact the most popular leader in the state, followed by Bharatiya Janata Party’s Sushil Modi. The poll also predicted a clear victory for the Janata Dal (United) lead Grand Alliance, which includes Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Rahul Gandhi’s Congress. According to the survey, Grand Alliance got 122 seats, ahead of the BJP lead NDA’s 111 seats. Both the alliances got 41% and 39% voter share respectively.

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ABP NEWS – NIELSON OPINION POLL :

ABP News-Nielsen’s latest Opinion Poll has projected a fall in the number of seats of the grand alliance of JD(U)-RJD and Congress in Bihar when compared to what they achieved in July.

 

The grand coalition was projected to win 129 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, according to our Survey conducted two months ago. However, this time around, the Opinion Poll has predicted that the Nitish Kumar-led association is set to lose seven seats thereby dropping down to 122.

 

According to the Opinion Poll, the BJP-led combine including LJP, RLSP and HAM is likely to win six seats more improving their tally to 118 as compared to the last conducted Survey. But NDA running short of four seats demonstrates that it has failed to gather the required magical figure of 122 seats.

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The map posted below will give you the mammoth presence of BJP across the nation. Momentum is not lost in the previous assembly polls of MAHARASHTRA, HARYANA, JAMMU & KASHMIR & JHARKHAND. DELHI being the sole exception.

BJP Rulred States After 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

BJP Rulred States After 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

 

So I hope that Zee TV’s 2/3rd majority prediction for BJP+ will be manifested in results. A new churning has begun in Bihar. Youth and female voters are heralding the new change in the hugely patriarchal and caste-ridden Bihar. Victorious march of BJP will continue in the Bihar and will change the JUNGLE-RAJ of beef eating socialists.

Election - 5

 

[ Poll predictions and all the other data has been extensively quoted from the website of the various Media channels. I express gratitude. ]

 

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Nanda : Pardesiyon Ko Hai Ik Din Jaanaa …..


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MUMBAI – MAHARASHTRA – INDIA           MARCH 30 , 2014           00.30 A.M.

Vintage Nanda as We Know Her

Vintage Nanda as We Know Her

Unfortunately I was not connected to the net when yesteryear heroine Nanda ji died . I read about her death next day in the Times of India . She died on March 25 , 2014 at the age of 75 . One more icon of my Allahabad days is gone . One more reigning queen of my young years has left this world forever . I am feeling so helpless , so desperate , so forlorn , that I am unable to express myself properly . Several luminaries of cinema , who ruled the tinsel world during my adolescent days , are leaving this ephemeral world one by one . Several beautiful faces have vanished from this terra firma leaving me with this sinking feeling .

Baby Nanda On The Threshold of Youth in "Toofan Aur Diya"

Baby Nanda On The Threshold of Youth in “Toofan Aur Diya”

Nanda started working in films in 1948 as child artiste . She played heroine’s role for the first time in Bandish (1955) . After doing one more film Shatranj (1956) , she attained prominence with Toofan Aur Diya (1956) . This Rajendra Kumar starrer was directed by legendary V. Shantaram . He was Nanda’s paternal uncle .

From Bandish (1955) to Raj Kapoor’s  Prem Rog (1983) , she worked in almost 66 films as lead heroine / character artiste in a career spanning 28 years . She worked in 5 films as child artiste also . Thus Nanda worked in 71 films in a career spanning 35 years . Out of 71 films of Nanda ji , I have watched almost 25 films .

Nanda , during her hey – days , was an epitome of Indianness . Nanda had her own distinct class , beauty and charm . Nanda exuded ethnic oomph and native charm . Nanda was simple , yet she played a glamorous role with perfection and Elan . Nanda was a unique combination of traditional and modern woman . First film of Nanda , which I watched , was a super hit ” Jab Jab Phool Khile ” [ 1965 ] . Nanda played stellar role in the film with Shashi Kapoor .

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I can never forget the film and its heroine Nanda in Jab Jab Phool Khile (1965) . All the songs of the film are still fresh in my memory and still reverberate in my ears . ” Pardesiyon Se Na Ankhiyaan Milaanaa …….. ” , ” Ye Samaa Samaa Hai Ye Pyaar Ka …………….. ” , ” Ek Tha Gul Aur Ek Thi Bulbul ……………. ” , ” Na Na Karte Pyaar Tumhi Se Kar Baithe …………. ” and the soulful and melancholic ” Yahan Main Ajnabi Hoon …………. “ are still part of my life , even after so many years .

With Shashi Kapoor in "Jab Jab Phool Khile"

With Shashi Kapoor in “Jab Jab Phool Khile”

In "Jab Jab Phool Khile"

In “Jab Jab Phool Khile”

Yeh Samaa , Samaa Hai Ye Pyaar Kaa  in "Jab Jab Phool Khile"

Yeh Samaa , Samaa Hai Ye Pyaar Kaa in “Jab Jab Phool Khile”

After Jab Jab Phool Khile (1965) , I watched several of her films . One film which I fondly remember even today is Dev Anand starrer Hum Dono (1961) , which I watched much later. I watched it in Palace talkies of Allahabad .

With Dev Anand in "Hum Dono"

With Dev Anand in “Hum Dono”

She was one of the few old era heroines , who modelled for Lux . I still remember the campaign .

Model for Lux

It is sad that she died a lonely death . Nanda was unmarried till her death . Few months back I watched a photograph of Nanda and her contemporaries . It brought tears in my eyes. All the beautiful reigning Divas of my young age are looking so different now . And alas , one is now gone !

Nanda & Her Close Friends : Waqt Ne Kiya , Kya Haseen Sitam

Nanda with Her Close Friends – Waheeda Rehman , Helen & Sadhana : Waqt Ne Kiya , Kya Haseen Sitam

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Filmography

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On behalf of all the students and staff of VIDUR Acting Institute , I offer my condolences to the family of Nanda ji and to all the near and dear ones .

VIDUR Editing Studio , VIDUR Club and VIDUR Theatre also pray for the departed soul .

May you REST IN PEACE Nanda ji ! I will always miss you . I will always remember you in Jab Jab Phool Khile (1965) and will never forget the image of your’s in a shikara in Kashmir . The beautiful night of Kashmir , the white satin gown caressing your body , gentle breeze playing with your shampooed hair , your amorous face with bewitching smile and the sonorous Lata Mangeshkar song “…………… Ye Samaa , Samaa Hai Ye Pyaar Kaa ; Kisi Ke Intezar Ka ……………….. “ will always remain with me till the last breath of my life . Your ephemeral body has left us but the above mentioned image endures perennially .

 

[ I have taken information about the films of Nanda ji from Wikipedia . I have copied the list of her films from Wikipedia and posted it here . I am indebted . ]

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Adieu Mr. Prabuddha Dasgupta !


MUMBAI – MAHARASHTRA – INDIA           AUGUST 14 , 2012           00.30 A.M.

Prabuddha Dasgupta

Prabuddha Dasgupta

We lost our finest black & white fashion photographer Prabuddha Dasgupta on August 12 , 2012 . He died of heart attack at the age of 58 during a shoot in Alibaug near Mumbai .

Born in Kolkata , West Bengal in 1959 , Dasgupta started his life in Mumbai in the fashion industry as a copywriter and later on moved to fashion photography . In early 80s , he approached Mr. Mohammed Khan of Enterprise for a job as a fashion photographer . Though Mr. Khan wanted him to join his company as a copywriter only but later on acquiesced to hire him as a photographer , a decision he never lamented .

His first assignment was the print campaign for Pierre Cardin , the renowned French fashion designer . After this Prabuddha Dasgupta never looked back .

Pierre Cardin

Pierre Cardin (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Apart from Enterprise , Dasgupta worked for The Times of India and Femina also as a freelancer .

Femina (India)

Femina (India) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

His culled and selected photographs were published in a book form by Viking Books and is titled ” Women ” [ 1996 ] .

Posting some of his black & white photographs , which are my favourites :

Maharani Gayatri Devi

Maharani Gayatri Devi

Image of An Anonymous Woman

Image of An Anonymous Woman

Image of An Anonymous Woman

Image of An Anonymous Woman

Image of An Anonymous Man

Image of An Anonymous Man

A Road

A Road

Nature

Nature

Ladakh

Ladakh

Urban Image

Urban Images

Lakshmi Menon , the famous model , was his model and muse .

With Lakshmi Menon

With Lakshmi Menon

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